Well, thought it is about time to comment on the issue that is the only one that has made me consider cancelling my membership of the Labour party, Iraq!
As you may gather from that, I was not, and am not a supporter of the Iraq war. While I do not think we should have gone in there, and do not like us being there, I am not in the ‘get out now’ camp. We have started this and we have to stay to try to stabilise things and sort out the mess we have helped create. I never doubted that the regime was evil under Saddam Hussein, or that it was up to no good, my argument was at the time that while Iraq can be seen as a threat, North Korea was always the larger threat, closely followed by Iran because of their nuclear plans, unfortunately this has since been proven right. What has also become apparent since is that Iraq acted as a counterbalance to Iran in the middle east, Iran always had an ‘enemy’ on its border with Iraq meaning that in a strange way they kept each other in check by focussing on each other, now that Iraq is unstable Iran has only allies and countries in no state to threaten it on its borders, thus it is becoming more confident and more outspoken (and therefore more dangerous). That is not to say Iran would not have created nuclear weapons (indeed if it will), but it would have delayed the process to let the west deal with North Korea first.
The one big thing with Iraq is that a major shift in policy is needed, viewing Iraq as one country may no longer be feasible and splitting it up may be the only answer. Also more help will be needed from Arab countries, possibly including Iran and Syria, now is the time to think about the Iraqis not the pride of the UK and US. Its clear that everything we do now is failing, you have to wonder where the millions (probably billions) of dollars that have supposedly been ploughed into the infrastructure have gone, according to various press there is no water, electric or proper utilities in a lot of places, the Iraqi security services are weak, the people are scared for their safety and hundreds of thousands are fleeing overseas. These are all questions that need to be answered and the questions are being asked in the UK, sadly I think America has the answers and are not willing to give them. The only bright light on the horizon is the US congressional elections in November, it looks as though the more sceptical Democrats could retake one (or both) of the Houses of Congress, this would lead to the Democrats asking some serious questions of the administration, only this time the Presidency would have to take note and answer. If the Democrats did win it would also force a rethink on the strategy in Iraq, something I really believe the UK is in favour of but is too weak to stand up to the Americans and say. The General who is head of the UK armies comments the other week show the feeling of the army, although I don’t think military people should normally publicly comment on political decisions (its one area the military should not go) I do believe the situation is exceptional enough for it to be understood.
So what will happen next, I see it all hindering on the US and the elections. A change of leadership in congress would lead to a new strategy and possibly a better approach, if the situation in the US stays as it is, sadly it looks as though civil war is inevitable. Alternatively the Arab nations will hopefully get more involved and help pull back the many anti-coalition groups.
As for the effect on the domestic politics of the UK, it is seemingly an issue very much divided by party. While Labour was, and still is, deeply divided over the war, the party leadership have always stuck to their view that this was right and have never shirked away from this and the majority of Labour MPs realise we cannot just leave now. The Lib Dems have always been against the war and therefore are one of the only parties with the right to genuinely say they were against it. The Lib Dem policy seems sensible, saying that while they did not agree with it they would not pull straight out. However saying that a timetable for withdrawl should be set I believe to be wrong, the situation on the ground at the moment is bad enough not to enable this to be a viable option. And then theres the Conservatives, quite where they stand is questionable. They attack the government repeatedly on the war and what is wrong about it, almost forgetting that it was the Conservative votes that enabled the government to get the votes to go to war (a similar point was well made in PMQs the other day by Menzies Campbell, leader of the Lib Dems). They don’t seem to grasp that you cannot support the government in going to war and then when it really gets rough and support really plummets for the war turn the issue on the Government. They supported the war, they need to help the Government be part of the solution, not stand there criticising when the going gets a bit tough (although asking them to get a policy on anything at the moment is a joke!).
Anyway, this ones gone on for quite a while and could go on forever so will stop it now, its one I could rant all day about!