So, the Democrats have resoundingly won the House of Representatives, look set to win the Senate and have got the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld. So what next for George W Bush and the Democrats, and what effect will it have on the next presidential election and on the Iraq war, and the UK position on it.

Well, the Democrats are understandably in a celebratory mood, preparing for a slice of power. The victory has essentially forced Bush to subtly rethink his strategy, even more so if the Democrats win the Senate. Luckily for him, Nancy Pelosi is sensible and is more willing to work with him to change direction in Iraq and America rather than heed some of the calls to bring various inquiries and impeachment proceedings. Now George Bush needs to prove he can work with Democrats to avoid becoming a lame duck President, while at the same time the Democrats need to follow up their victor with hard policies. The basics like a minimum wage and introducing reform to Capitol Hill to stamp out corruption (something the GOP (Republicans) promised and largely failed to do) they look likely to introduce, however with foreign policy the President has full control. The Democrats also need to clearly show what they mean by the much pushed change of direction in Iraq. Only time will tell whether the president can work with the Democrats, something that is more likely now that Donald Rumsfeld, much despised by the Democrats, has gone and looks likely to be replaced by a more moderate candidate.

The next presidential election is due in two years time and George Bush will be unable to run, so it will mean new candidates on both sides. Hillary Clinton is the favourite on the Democrats side with various candidates including John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani on the Republican side. The mid-term elections could go for or against the Democrats. If they prove to be successful in their period in-charge of Congress then that would put them in a very good position for a presidential campaign, if however they fail to stick to their promises and get caught up with fighting amongst themselves then it could severely harm their chances. The GOP also have a part to play, they need to realise their mistakes and change, if not they will still be in the same position they are now in 5 or 10 years only offering a weaker challenge to the Democrats.

One country that this result could cause problems for is the UK. Previously the UK government has maintained its stance that British troops should stay in as long as is required, strongly backed in this point by the USA. However now the Democrats favour a withdrawal plan, something they could potentially get from the President, then Britain would be left alone in insisting on staying the course without a timetable for withdrawal. This would leave the British Government under intense pressure from the public to withdraw, however if they turn around and state they will follow any US plan for a withdrawal timetable people will again see Tony Blair is more under the control of the US government and is more of George Bush’s lapdog than ever! On the other hand any US withdrawal would give the new Labour PM (who will be in place by the end of 2007) a chance to bring in a British plan to get out and therefore potentially remove one of the biggest weights around the Labour Governments necks before the next general election.

The ironic thing to come out of the whole thing for me was George Bush’s speech, when he said that the election was close but the electoral college system had skewed the results, funny when you think the is the way he won the election in 2000 (he got less votes than Gore but more electoral seats)! That could be why he hasn’t really argued the point!